Will House Prices Drop Before 2024?

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With interest and mortgage rates constantly changing, it can be extremely difficult to know whether house prices are lower or higher than usual. In this blog, Crest Surveyors clarify this by exploring whether house prices will drop before 2024 and why we may notice a change in property costs. 

So, will house prices drop before 2024? Yes, house prices are expected to drop by 2024. Generally, the housing market is slowing, with property prices falling from their peak levels. However, predictions of a dramatic price fall in housing costs are yet to materialise.  

Keep reading to find out more about UK housing prices and what reliable sources have to say about these costs. 

What Is Happening To UK House Prices?

The general consensus among banks and property websites is that house prices are now falling. Since the pandemic, house prices have begun to decrease; however, they are still very high by historical standards and have been rising much faster than wages. The average price of a UK home has nearly tripled since the turn of the century. According to Nationwide Building Society, prices have increased by more than 60% over the last ten years

On the surface, it appears that the main long-term driver has been supply and demand. A shortage of housing stock and high demand for properties has hugely affected prices. On top of this, low interest rates have also been powering the housing market for years. People used to be able to afford mortgages because they could borrow cheaply, however this has now changed because interest rates are rising. Since December 2021, the Bank of England has increased the base rate 13 times from its record low of 0.1% and now sits at 5%. This has been in response to soaring inflation. 

Below, we have collated data from various banks and housing websites to highlight how house prices are falling:


The Halifax house price index published on 7 June showed that average house prices fell 1% from the beginning of the year to May. This was the first annual decline in house prices since December 2012.


Rightmove’s latest data showed a fall in asking prices, with the average price of UK asking prices hitting £372,812 (a fall of £82). Not only was this the first monthly drop in asking prices this year, but it is also the first drop seen in the month of June since 2017. 

Nationwide Building Society 

Nationwide’s house price index recalled that house prices had fallen by 3.4% from the beginning of the year to April 2023, the biggest annual drop since 2009. 


Zoopla’s May 2023 house price index showed UK prices had fallen by 1.3% over the past 6 months. It also indicated that prices are no longer falling as quickly as they were at the end of 2022, with buyers seeming to regain some confidence.

This data shows that the average price of UK properties sold hit a record of £372,894. It also shows that house prices were 1.5% higher than they were in the same month of 2022. According to forecasts from the Office For Budget Responsibility (OBR), house prices could fall by 10% over the next two years. 

How Are Mortgage Rates Affecting House Prices?

Higher mortgage rates have made it more expensive to purchase a home. Subsequently, the housing market has taken a knock, with prices falling for four months in a row. There was more demand for property buying at the start of 2023 following a fall in mortgage rates from their October peak; however, prices have been falling ever since. 

In 2023, further rate rises are expected. This could seriously dampen the housing market because it means mortgage repayments will increase. The biggest cause of a slowdown in the housing market is most likely down to the cost of living crisis. Sadly, as household budgets come under pressure, fewer people can afford to stretch themselves to buy homes. This in turn, will discourage first-time buyers, thereby directly impacting the housing market. 

Have House Prices Already Dropped?

In March 2023, Nationwide Building Society, the timeliest source of actual house prices in the UK, recorded an -0.8% fall in house prices. This was a larger-than-predicted monthly decline. Annually, house prices are now 3.1% lower than the same time last year.

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Are There Regional Variations In House Prices?

There are many regional variations in property prices, with specific areas seeing different levels of growth. According to Nationwide Building Society, all four nations within the UK saw a clear decline in house prices in the first three months of 2023. Here is a list of the data collected: 

  • Northern Ireland – fell by 1.3%
  • Wales – dropped by 1.7%
  • England – fell by 1.9% (East Anglia being the region with the biggest decline)
  • Scotland – suffered the biggest decline with a drop of 2.3% 

How Do Prices Differ For Different Types of Property?

The pandemic caused extreme shifts in housing preferences, with mortgage lenders continuing to see differences in price trends between property types. Prices of detached, family homes are growing much faster than flats. We think this is because many people are still working from home a few days a week and therefore require properties with more space. Figures from Nationwide Building Society show that the average price of:

  • A detached property increased by 5.9% in 2022. 
  • Flats increased by 2.1% in 2022. 

What Are The House Price Predictions For 2024?

Generally, due to high inflation and interest rates, housing prices are predicted to fall before 2024. In March 2023, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government’s independent forecaster, predicted that house prices would fall 10% over the next two years. It argues that property transactions are expected to drop 20% over the same period, caused by the rise in mortgage rates and the squeeze on household incomes. 

RICS Property Valuations With Crest Surveyors

Our RICS property valuation at Crest Surveyors includes a visual inspection and detailed analysis of a property by RICS Registered Valuers, followed by a detailed report highlighting the findings. 

We boast of a team of highly experienced and qualified surveyors that compile impartial reports, providing you with the most accurate view of your property. We are also proud to offer our clients high-quality services that exceed the traditional valuation services. 

Get in touch with one of our experts today to find out more about our RICS property valuation services. 

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